Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.4% vs 53.0%). Look for Crosby on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Crosby 52.8% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 64.7%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 63.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 51.0%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Pavelski
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Pavelski
Crosby
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
3
Pavelski
Crosby
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Crosby
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
2
Pavelski
Crosby
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
52.5% (1,443)
-0.2%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
54.7% (369)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
55.9% (34)
+6.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Pavelski shoots right. Crosby is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (647).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Crosby
Home
54.2% (360)
53.0% (931)
Away
52.6% (329)
53.0% (915)
By Period
Pavelski
Crosby
P1
54.5%
50.3%
P2
56.7%
55.4%
P3
50.8%
53.3%
OT
30.8%
47.4%
Final 5 min
51.4%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 18:02 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 00:07 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 1 | 08:45 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 1 | 00:17 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 3 | 08:30 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 3 | 08:23 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 3 | 08:20 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 17:48 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 11:21 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |