Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 53.5%). Look for Crosby on offensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 32 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Crosby 53.5% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Crosby leads 42-41 in 83 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 61.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 67.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 57.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
Pavelski
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
41
-
42
(83 meetings)
41
42
Pavelski
Crosby
Last 10: Pavelski 2-8 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
10
22
Pavelski
Crosby
32 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
18
9
Pavelski
Crosby
27 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
13
11
Pavelski
Crosby
24 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
52.8% (17,990)
+0.8%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
57.4% (4,733)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
47.1% (765)
+3.8%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Crosby is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (8,656).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Crosby
Home
56.4% (5,998)
55.0% (11,972)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
52.0% (11,535)
By Period
Pavelski
Crosby
P1
53.5%
53.6%
P2
55.2%
53.9%
P3
53.9%
53.3%
OT
52.3%
49.6%
Final 5 min
54.4%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2024 | 3 | 19:11 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 3 | 18:58 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 2 | 19:52 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 2 | 16:57 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 12:00 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 10:41 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 02:27 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 02:24 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 19:07 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 18:02 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 00:07 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 1 | 08:45 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 1 | 00:17 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 3 | 08:30 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |