Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Oshie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.9% vs Oshie 45.9% (+10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 77.5%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 94.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 86.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 80.9%
80.9%
19.1%
Pavelski
Oshie
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Pavelski
Oshie
Last 8: Pavelski 6-2 Oshie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
1
Pavelski
Oshie
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Oshie
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Oshie
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (682)
46.8% (186)
+6.6%
Power Play
63.7% (168)
25.0% (16)
+38.7%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (160)
36.0% (25)
+12.1%
On power play, Pavelski has a +38.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Oshie shoots right. Pavelski is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (230).
Pavelski shoots right. Oshie is 38.5% vs right-shot opponents (39).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Oshie
Home
59.0% (527)
47.2% (106)
Away
49.3% (493)
41.3% (121)
By Period
Pavelski
Oshie
P1
50.8%
55.6%
P2
58.9%
40.8%
P3
53.6%
37.5%
OT
42.9%
25.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.3%
Oshie
32.0%▼
43.0%
44.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2011 | 3 | 08:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 3 | 06:34 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 3 | 06:17 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 15:47 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 15:38 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 06:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 04:33 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 00:50 | Neutral | T.J. Oshie |