Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.5% vs 52.5%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Hertl 52.3% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 66.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 61.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 51.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Pavelski
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Pavelski
Hertl
Last 7: Pavelski 2-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
Pavelski
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
51.6% (1,084)
+0.9%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
61.0% (246)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
44.1% (136)
+0.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Hertl
Home
55.0% (391)
55.2% (696)
Away
49.7% (360)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Pavelski
Hertl
P1
50.8%
55.4%
P2
55.0%
54.8%
P3
52.0%
48.9%
OT
25.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.2%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 00:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 05:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 03:54 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 15:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 01:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 15:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |