Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Hertl 56.8% (-6.4%)
Offensive zone
Hertl 57.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 57.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 54.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 56.4%
43.6%
56.4%
Pavelski
Hertl
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
57.0% (718)
-5.5%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
64.9% (188)
-13.2%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
44.2% (77)
-15.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Hertl
Home
53.1% (339)
59.2% (463)
Away
49.2% (356)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Pavelski
Hertl
P1
53.8%
56.3%
P2
47.8%
55.4%
P3
50.2%
60.5%
OT
71.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%