Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Hertl 54.5% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 55.5%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 56.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 51.2%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Pavelski
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Pavelski
Hertl
Last 5: Pavelski 1-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Pavelski
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
54.1% (1,117)
-1.8%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
59.8% (296)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
34.4% (32)
+28.1%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +28.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Pavelski shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Hertl
Home
54.2% (360)
54.3% (709)
Away
52.6% (329)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Pavelski
Hertl
P1
54.5%
51.6%
P2
56.7%
53.6%
P3
50.8%
58.6%
OT
30.8%
45.5%
Final 5 min
51.4%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 07:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 06:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 2 | 19:25 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 2 | 06:03 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |