Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.3% vs Nosek 50.1% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nosek 54.9%
Defensive zone
Nosek 54.0%
Neutral zone
Nosek 53.7%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Pavelski
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Pavelski
Nosek
Last 5: Pavelski 2-3 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Nosek
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Nosek
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
1
Pavelski
Nosek
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (474)
51.2% (377)
+3.2%
Power Play
51.9% (104)
50.0% (10)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (74)
41.3% (46)
+11.4%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Pavelski is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (493).
Pavelski shoots right. Nosek is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (162).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Nosek
Home
54.3% (313)
48.3% (240)
Away
53.4% (339)
52.3% (193)
By Period
Pavelski
Nosek
P1
51.0%
48.4%
P2
51.9%
51.4%
P3
58.1%
50.8%
Final 5 min
51.9%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.8%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2019 | 3 | 16:41 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 13, 2019 | 3 | 07:23 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2019 | 1 | 10:20 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 2 | 17:41 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |