Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 51.9%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Nosek 51.4% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 57.9%
Defensive zone
Nosek 55.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 52.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Pavelski
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Pavelski
Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Nosek
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
1
Pavelski
Nosek
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
54.4% (215)
-2.9%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
0.0% (1)
+51.7%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
23.5% (17)
+5.1%
On power play, Pavelski has a +51.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. Nosek is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (79).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Nosek
Home
53.1% (339)
50.4% (127)
Away
49.2% (356)
53.8% (106)
By Period
Pavelski
Nosek
P1
53.8%
51.4%
P2
47.8%
51.3%
P3
50.2%
53.2%
Final 5 min
48.6%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 18:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 09:52 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |