Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Nosek 53.4% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 75.7%
Defensive zone
Nosek 79.9%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 52.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 75.7%
75.7%
24.3%
Pavelski
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Pavelski
Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Nosek
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
55.1% (557)
-2.6%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
50.0% (4)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
47.7% (111)
-3.3%
On power play, Pavelski has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Nosek is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (280).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Nosek
Home
55.0% (391)
52.3% (342)
Away
49.7% (360)
55.5% (330)
By Period
Pavelski
Nosek
P1
50.8%
49.0%
P2
55.0%
53.8%
P3
52.0%
57.9%
Final 5 min
56.2%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2022 | 3 | 13:42 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 3 | 09:08 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 3 | 04:13 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 2 | 14:49 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |