Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.5% vs 51.7%). Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Karlsson 51.5% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 68.4%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 62.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 57.4%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 57.8%
42.2%
57.8%
Pavelski
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Pavelski
Karlsson
Last 7: Pavelski 5-2 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Karlsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
2
Pavelski
Karlsson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
51.4% (735)
+1.1%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
63.5% (115)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
42.9% (133)
+1.5%
On power play, Karlsson has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Karlsson is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (332).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Karlsson
Home
55.0% (391)
52.3% (524)
Away
49.7% (360)
51.0% (459)
By Period
Pavelski
Karlsson
P1
50.8%
50.7%
P2
55.0%
51.4%
P3
52.0%
53.2%
OT
25.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
56.2%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 17:23 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 15:49 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 17:41 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 05:55 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 18:03 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 00:26 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 8, 2021 | 2 | 10:30 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |