Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Karlsson 55.6% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 70.2%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 69.4%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 71.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 69.8%
69.8%
30.2%
Pavelski
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Pavelski
Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
2
Pavelski
Karlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
2
Pavelski
Karlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
56.3% (739)
-4.8%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
58.6% (181)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
47.2% (53)
-18.6%
On penalty kill, Karlsson has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. Karlsson is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (346).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Karlsson
Home
53.1% (339)
56.5% (462)
Away
49.2% (356)
56.0% (511)
By Period
Pavelski
Karlsson
P1
53.8%
57.1%
P2
47.8%
55.2%
P3
50.2%
56.7%
OT
71.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 00:41 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 17, 2023 | OT | 04:52 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 17:28 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 17:25 | Offensive | William Karlsson |