Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Karlsson 54.9% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 55.6%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 65.2%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 54.0%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
Pavelski
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Pavelski
Karlsson
Last 6: Pavelski 3-3 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Karlsson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Karlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
55.3% (897)
-3.0%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
61.1% (113)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
50.8% (132)
+11.7%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Pavelski shoots right. Karlsson is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (390).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Karlsson
Home
54.2% (360)
58.6% (560)
Away
52.6% (329)
52.2% (582)
By Period
Pavelski
Karlsson
P1
54.5%
55.8%
P2
56.7%
55.6%
P3
50.8%
55.7%
OT
30.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.4%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 08:02 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 07:54 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 19:17 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 19:10 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 14:55 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 12:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |