Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Gourde 49.5% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 70.4%
Defensive zone
Gourde 64.8%
Neutral zone
Gourde 51.4%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Pavelski
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Pavelski
Gourde
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
3
Pavelski
Gourde
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Gourde
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
49.1% (731)
+3.4%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
54.3% (81)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
48.2% (85)
-3.8%
On penalty kill, Gourde has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Gourde is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Gourde
Home
55.0% (391)
50.9% (479)
Away
49.7% (360)
47.8% (418)
By Period
Pavelski
Gourde
P1
50.8%
51.2%
P2
55.0%
49.8%
P3
52.0%
47.5%
OT
25.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
56.2%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2022 | 3 | 03:11 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 14:51 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 14:37 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 06:21 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 3 | 17:59 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 3 | 05:08 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 2 | 17:01 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 2 | 00:44 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 3 | 19:52 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 1 | 07:15 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |