Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Gourde 48.0% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 52.6%
Defensive zone
Gourde 59.5%
Neutral zone
Gourde 54.4%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Pavelski
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Pavelski
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Pavelski
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Gourde
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
48.0% (914)
+3.5%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
54.2% (48)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
43.9% (123)
-15.3%
On penalty kill, Gourde has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. Gourde is 47.7% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Gourde
Home
53.1% (339)
50.2% (512)
Away
49.2% (356)
45.7% (573)
By Period
Pavelski
Gourde
P1
53.8%
50.0%
P2
47.8%
45.3%
P3
50.2%
48.6%
OT
71.4%
20.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 00:28 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 3 | 00:22 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 13:54 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |