Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 14 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Gourde 48.2% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 26-20 in 46 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 90.3%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 67.7%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 81.3%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 80.3%
80.3%
19.7%
Pavelski
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
20
(46 meetings)
26
20
Pavelski
Gourde
Last 10: Pavelski 7-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
9
7
Pavelski
Gourde
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
9
5
Pavelski
Gourde
14 total
Neutral Zone
Even
8
8
Pavelski
Gourde
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
48.4% (4,954)
+5.2%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
57.4% (376)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
39.9% (554)
+11.0%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Gourde is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,937).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Gourde
Home
56.4% (5,998)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Pavelski
Gourde
P1
53.5%
49.9%
P2
55.2%
47.4%
P3
53.9%
47.5%
OT
52.3%
37.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 00:28 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 3 | 00:22 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 13:54 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 03:57 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 03:45 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 16:35 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 01:31 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 04:40 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 3 | 03:11 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 14:51 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 14:37 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 06:21 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 3 | 17:59 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 3 | 05:08 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 2 | 17:01 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 2 | 00:44 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 3 | 19:52 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 1 | 07:15 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |