Scouting Report
Joe Veleno holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 51.1% vs Backlund 49.7% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Veleno 68.3%
Defensive zone
Backlund 70.6%
Neutral zone
Backlund 52.6%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Veleno
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Veleno
Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Veleno
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (272)
50.1% (891)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (29)
47.8% (278)
-9.9%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Veleno is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (182).
Veleno shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Home / Away
Veleno
Backlund
Home
49.6% (123)
48.1% (580)
Away
52.8% (178)
51.1% (653)
By Period
Veleno
Backlund
P1
54.8%
45.1%
P2
49.2%
54.7%
P3
52.6%
49.0%
OT
25.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
60.3%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.5%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 08:12 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 03:10 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |