Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Veleno wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 47.2% vs Backlund 49.0% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 13-4 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Veleno 70.2%
Defensive zone
Veleno 59.3%
Neutral zone
Veleno 67.3%
Result
Joe Veleno favored at 65.4%
65.4%
34.6%
Veleno
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
13
(17 meetings)
4
13
Veleno
Backlund
Last 10: Veleno 3-7 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
3
Veleno
Backlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
4
Veleno
Backlund
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
6
Veleno
Backlund
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (2,311)
49.7% (13,410)
-2.3%
Power Play
51.0% (98)
51.6% (1,336)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (88)
44.0% (2,446)
-7.6%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Veleno is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,618).
Veleno shoots left. Backlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (10,953).
Home / Away
Veleno
Backlund
Home
45.3% (1,136)
49.7% (8,565)
Away
48.6% (1,361)
48.3% (8,632)
By Period
Veleno
Backlund
P1
48.0%
48.5%
P2
47.7%
50.3%
P3
45.9%
48.4%
OT
35.7%
44.1%
Final 5 min
48.7%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
54.0%▲
52.5%
47.1%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 08:12 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 03:10 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 11:08 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 06:13 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 22, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 22, 2023 | 2 | 17:27 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Oct 22, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 22, 2023 | 1 | 05:49 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 22, 2023 | 1 | 02:35 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 22, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 3 | 04:19 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 2 | 15:54 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 1 | 10:44 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 3 | 04:02 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |