Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings). Veleno wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 47.2% vs Frost 50.3% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Veleno leads 15-13 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 77.4%
Defensive zone
Veleno 62.4%
Neutral zone
Frost 57.9%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 60.5%
39.5%
60.5%
Veleno
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
13
(28 meetings)
15
13
Veleno
Frost
Last 10: Veleno 5-5 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
4
6
Veleno
Frost
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
4
2
Veleno
Frost
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Veleno
7
5
Veleno
Frost
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (2,311)
49.4% (3,598)
-2.0%
Power Play
51.0% (98)
55.5% (625)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (88)
52.8% (36)
-16.4%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Veleno is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,618).
Veleno shoots left. Frost is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Home / Away
Veleno
Frost
Home
45.3% (1,136)
51.0% (2,047)
Away
48.6% (1,361)
49.7% (2,212)
By Period
Veleno
Frost
P1
48.0%
50.8%
P2
47.7%
51.1%
P3
45.9%
48.5%
OT
35.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.7%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
54.0%▲
52.5%
47.1%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 17:15 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 17:39 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 14:23 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 12:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 1 | 02:02 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 11:12 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 11:18 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 | 18:19 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 14:45 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 02:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 10:08 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 3 | 01:06 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 18:16 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 12:23 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 06:21 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 18:53 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 18:41 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 3 | 01:11 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 1 | 17:30 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 17:21 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |