Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Veleno wins 43.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 43.5% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 57.0%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 53.5%
Neutral zone
Veleno 50.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 52.2%
47.8%
52.2%
Veleno
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Veleno
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Veleno
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Veleno
2
0
Veleno
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
42.9% (617)
44.7% (1,053)
-1.8%
Power Play
37.5% (16)
36.8% (95)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (18)
65.0% (20)
-31.7%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +31.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Veleno is 43.6% vs right-shot opponents (202).
Veleno shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
Veleno
MacKinnon
Home
40.7% (327)
49.4% (553)
Away
44.4% (324)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Veleno
MacKinnon
P1
43.2%
45.3%
P2
42.0%
42.7%
P3
42.4%
45.1%
OT
50.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
41.4%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
54.0%▲
52.5%
42.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 18:14 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 10:48 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 03:40 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |