Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.5% vs 51.5%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 51.1% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 73.3%
Defensive zone
Veleno 66.2%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Veleno
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Veleno
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Veleno
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
1
0
Veleno
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (272)
50.0% (992)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (29)
34.4% (32)
+3.5%
On penalty kill, Veleno has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Veleno is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (119).
Veleno shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Veleno
MacKinnon
Home
49.6% (123)
53.3% (591)
Away
52.8% (178)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Veleno
MacKinnon
P1
54.8%
49.9%
P2
49.2%
53.2%
P3
52.6%
50.8%
OT
25.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
60.3%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 03:02 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 02:52 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |