Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Ek wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ek 48.8% vs Duchene 51.6% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ek 50.5%
Defensive zone
Ek 60.5%
Neutral zone
Ek 57.1%
Result
Joel Eriksson Ek favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Ek
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Ek
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Ek
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Ek
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ek
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (815)
51.2% (324)
-4.0%
Power Play
53.8% (266)
60.4% (53)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (180)
16.7% (6)
+31.1%
On penalty kill, Ek has a +31.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Ek is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Ek shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Home / Away
Ek
Duchene
Home
49.9% (693)
51.6% (182)
Away
47.2% (568)
52.2% (201)
By Period
Ek
Duchene
P1
46.2%
49.6%
P2
52.6%
56.2%
P3
46.5%
48.6%
OT
54.9%
60.0%
Final 5 min
44.2%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ek
52.0%▲
46.0%
48.7%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 02:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 07:09 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |