Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Ek wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ek 47.7% vs Sturm 52.5% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ek 81.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 55.6%
Neutral zone
Ek 59.8%
Result
Joel Eriksson Ek favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Ek
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Ek
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ek
1
0
Ek
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Ek
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ek
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (920)
54.0% (480)
-6.0%
Power Play
52.0% (302)
28.6% (7)
+23.4%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (243)
50.0% (102)
-9.7%
On power play, Ek has a +23.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Ek is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (942).
Ek shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Home / Away
Ek
Sturm
Home
49.1% (740)
54.0% (287)
Away
46.1% (725)
52.0% (302)
By Period
Ek
Sturm
P1
47.6%
53.5%
P2
48.9%
51.0%
P3
45.4%
55.1%
OT
60.6%
20.0%
Final 5 min
46.5%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ek
52.0%▲
46.0%
47.6%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2022 | 3 | 19:51 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 3 | 19:34 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 2 | 17:04 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 18:16 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |