Scouting Report
Joel Eriksson Ek holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Ek on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Ek wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ek 49.4% vs Cates 45.2% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Ek leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Ek 52.8%
Defensive zone
Ek 70.1%
Neutral zone
Ek 62.9%
Result
Joel Eriksson Ek favored at 61.0%
61.0%
39.0%
Ek
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Ek
Cates
Last 10: Ek 6-4 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Ek
Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ek
2
1
Ek
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ek
2
1
Ek
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ek
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (671)
44.2% (566)
+3.5%
Power Play
54.9% (206)
44.0% (84)
+10.9%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (155)
50.0% (38)
-1.0%
On power play, Ek has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Ek is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (718).
Ek shoots left. Cates is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (437).
Home / Away
Ek
Cates
Home
50.3% (565)
45.1% (350)
Away
48.2% (467)
43.8% (338)
By Period
Ek
Cates
P1
47.4%
46.8%
P2
54.3%
46.5%
P3
46.2%
40.8%
OT
51.2%
20.0%
Final 5 min
45.6%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ek
48.0%▬
49.0%
49.3%
Cates
56.0%▲
46.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 17:46 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 10:00 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:52 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 17:53 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:40 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:34 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 01:55 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:20 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |