Scouting Report
Joel Eriksson Ek holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Ek on offensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 17 meetings). Ek wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ek 47.7% vs Cates 43.2% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Ek leads 23-11 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Ek 94.0%
Defensive zone
Ek 80.2%
Neutral zone
Ek 85.1%
Result
Joel Eriksson Ek favored at 88.6%
88.6%
11.4%
Ek
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
11
(34 meetings)
23
11
Ek
Cates
Last 10: Ek 6-4 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ek
11
6
Ek
Cates
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ek
5
2
Ek
Cates
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ek
7
3
Ek
Cates
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ek
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (6,674)
44.1% (2,742)
+3.2%
Power Play
55.2% (1,494)
43.0% (242)
+12.2%
Penalty Kill
40.2% (1,168)
34.9% (373)
+5.3%
On power play, Ek has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Ek is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (6,096).
Ek shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Home / Away
Ek
Cates
Home
48.6% (4,644)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
46.9% (4,692)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Ek
Cates
P1
46.6%
44.5%
P2
49.4%
43.5%
P3
46.7%
41.2%
OT
53.8%
29.4%
Final 5 min
46.0%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ek
52.0%▲
46.0%
47.7%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 17:46 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 10:00 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:52 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 17:53 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:40 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:34 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 01:55 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:20 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 13:09 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 03:31 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 23, 2023 | OT | 02:05 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Mar 23, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 17:39 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 17:21 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 07:20 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 15:02 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 08:28 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |