Scouting Report
Joel Eriksson Ek holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Ek on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Ek wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ek 48.8% vs Cates 45.5% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Ek leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Ek 62.3%
Defensive zone
Ek 75.1%
Neutral zone
Ek 64.7%
Result
Joel Eriksson Ek favored at 66.8%
66.8%
33.2%
Ek
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Ek
Cates
Last 10: Ek 6-4 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Ek
Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ek
2
1
Ek
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ek
2
1
Ek
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ek
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (815)
45.4% (712)
+1.8%
Power Play
53.8% (266)
42.2% (102)
+11.6%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (180)
44.7% (47)
+3.1%
On power play, Ek has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Ek is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Ek shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
Ek
Cates
Home
49.9% (693)
46.3% (423)
Away
47.2% (568)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Ek
Cates
P1
46.2%
46.3%
P2
52.6%
47.1%
P3
46.5%
42.1%
OT
54.9%
18.2%
Final 5 min
44.2%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ek
52.0%▲
46.0%
48.7%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 17:46 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 10:00 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:52 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 17:53 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:40 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:34 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 01:55 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:20 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |