Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Wagner on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Wagner wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wagner 47.3% vs Tavares 54.2% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 73.1%
Defensive zone
Wagner 57.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 51.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 57.1%
42.9%
57.1%
Wagner
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Wagner
Tavares
Last 6: Wagner 3-3 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
2
Wagner
Tavares
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wagner
1
0
Wagner
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wagner
2
1
Wagner
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wagner
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (83)
53.0% (1,201)
-4.8%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
61.5% (262)
-61.5%
Penalty Kill
38.9% (36)
53.8% (65)
-14.9%
On power play, Tavares has a +61.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Wagner is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (98).
Wagner shoots right. Tavares is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (558).
Home / Away
Wagner
Tavares
Home
41.4% (58)
57.5% (762)
Away
48.4% (62)
51.4% (766)
By Period
Wagner
Tavares
P1
45.0%
54.5%
P2
59.1%
53.2%
P3
25.7%
55.5%
OT
100.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
38.7%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wagner
40.0%▼
49.5%
45.0%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2018 | 1 | 00:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2018 | 3 | 05:47 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2018 | 2 | 13:06 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Nov 26, 2018 | 2 | 03:44 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Nov 26, 2018 | 2 | 03:39 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Nov 10, 2018 | 3 | 17:29 | Offensive | John Tavares |