Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +24.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Brown wins 36.7% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brown 42.1% vs Tavares 59.8% (-24.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 75.4%
Defensive zone
Brown 72.0%
Neutral zone
Brown 64.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
Brown
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Brown
Tavares
Last 8: Brown 3-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
5
Brown
Tavares
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brown
3
0
Brown
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brown
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (44)
60.9% (1,043)
-20.0%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
60.4% (278)
-10.4%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (87)
47.6% (21)
-14.3%
On even strength, Tavares has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Brown is 36.7% vs left-shot opponents (90).
Brown shoots right. Tavares is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Home / Away
Brown
Tavares
Home
40.0% (55)
63.5% (684)
Away
33.3% (78)
57.6% (658)
By Period
Brown
Tavares
P1
37.8%
60.3%
P2
35.4%
60.4%
P3
34.8%
60.1%
OT
50.0%
92.3%
Final 5 min
25.9%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brown
26.0%▼
34.0%
36.1%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 11:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 05:29 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 09:00 | Defensive | Connor Brown |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 08:43 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 08:14 | Defensive | Connor Brown |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 01:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 01:39 | Defensive | Connor Brown |