Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lazar wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 45.0% vs Tavares 53.8% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 85.8%
Defensive zone
Lazar 56.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 56.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 69.1%
30.9%
69.1%
Lazar
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lazar
Tavares
Last 5: Lazar 3-2 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Lazar
Tavares
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
0
Lazar
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (341)
54.0% (1,077)
-9.7%
Power Play
46.2% (26)
54.5% (275)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
29.4% (17)
50.0% (18)
-20.6%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +20.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Lazar is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (262).
Lazar shoots right. Tavares is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (476).
Home / Away
Lazar
Tavares
Home
45.0% (202)
56.8% (655)
Away
42.3% (182)
51.6% (715)
By Period
Lazar
Tavares
P1
45.5%
54.1%
P2
43.0%
53.9%
P3
42.1%
54.3%
OT
66.7%
54.2%
Final 5 min
49.4%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
43.8%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2016 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 23, 2016 | 2 | 09:22 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 23, 2016 | 2 | 05:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 23, 2016 | 1 | 15:39 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 23, 2016 | 1 | 07:29 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |