Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Skinner wins 58.8% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Skinner 51.6% vs Tavares 54.2% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Skinner 83.3%
Defensive zone
Tavares 89.5%
Neutral zone
Skinner 54.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 58.3%
41.7%
58.3%
Skinner
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Skinner
Tavares
Last 7: Skinner 3-4 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Skinner
3
0
Skinner
Tavares
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
4
Skinner
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Skinner
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (200)
53.0% (1,201)
-5.5%
Power Play
62.0% (100)
61.5% (262)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
53.8% (65)
-53.8%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +53.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Skinner is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (182).
Skinner shoots left. Tavares is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Home / Away
Skinner
Tavares
Home
58.9% (158)
57.5% (762)
Away
44.8% (143)
51.4% (766)
By Period
Skinner
Tavares
P1
49.0%
54.5%
P2
47.4%
53.2%
P3
59.6%
55.5%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Skinner
44.0%▬
44.5%
52.2%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2019 | 1 | 03:42 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Mar 2, 2019 | 2 | 11:18 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2019 | 3 | 18:41 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2019 | 3 | 00:21 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2019 | 2 | 00:15 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2019 | 1 | 12:44 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Dec 4, 2018 | 3 | 05:12 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |