Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Danforth on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Tavares wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Danforth shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Danforth 48.8% (+10.8%)
H2H factor
Danforth leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 71.7%
Defensive zone
Danforth 77.4%
Neutral zone
Danforth 59.0%
Result
Justin Danforth favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
Tavares
Danforth
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Tavares
Danforth
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Danforth
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
2
Tavares
Danforth
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danforth
2
5
Tavares
Danforth
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Danforth
0
1
Tavares
Danforth
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Danforth
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
51.2% (281)
+8.0%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
55.6% (9)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
35.8% (67)
+7.1%
On even strength, Tavares has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Danforth shoots right. Tavares is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Tavares shoots left. Danforth is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (262).
Home / Away
Tavares
Danforth
Home
57.5% (668)
52.0% (196)
Away
61.1% (684)
44.1% (161)
By Period
Tavares
Danforth
P1
58.0%
48.2%
P2
60.1%
52.8%
P3
61.0%
42.2%
OT
27.8%
83.3%
Final 5 min
60.7%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Danforth
54.0%▲
51.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2023 | OT | 02:51 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 01:12 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 08:18 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 17:41 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 12:40 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 03:24 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 06:33 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 02:29 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 12:16 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 12:34 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 19:24 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 11:04 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 1 | 17:39 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |