Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +20.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kolesar on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 57.1% vs right-shot opponents — Kolesar shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Kolesar 43.8% (+20.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 63.4%
Defensive zone
Tavares 53.1%
Neutral zone
Kolesar 60.2%
Result
Keegan Kolesar favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Tavares
Kolesar
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Tavares
Kolesar
Last 5: Tavares 2-3 Kolesar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kolesar
0
1
Tavares
Kolesar
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Kolesar
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kolesar
1
2
Tavares
Kolesar
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Kolesar
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
40.6% (170)
+20.3%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
50.0% (6)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
33.3% (12)
+14.3%
On even strength, Tavares has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kolesar shoots right. Tavares is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Tavares shoots left. Kolesar is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (126).
Home / Away
Tavares
Kolesar
Home
63.5% (684)
38.0% (92)
Away
57.6% (658)
42.7% (96)
By Period
Tavares
Kolesar
P1
60.3%
41.0%
P2
60.4%
41.9%
P3
60.1%
37.7%
Final 5 min
57.4%
38.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Kolesar
40.0%▲
38.0%
40.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2022 | 3 | 16:55 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 3 | 13:43 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 3 | 13:37 | Offensive | Keegan Kolesar |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 3 | 01:48 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 3 | 01:34 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |