Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kolesar on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Kolesar 43.4% (+12.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kolesar 66.2%
Defensive zone
Kolesar 63.1%
Neutral zone
Kolesar 73.1%
Result
Keegan Kolesar favored at 68.6%
31.4%
68.6%
Tavares
Kolesar
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Tavares
Kolesar
Last 6: Tavares 2-4 Kolesar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kolesar
0
1
Tavares
Kolesar
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Kolesar
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kolesar
1
2
Tavares
Kolesar
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Kolesar
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
41.9% (382)
+12.1%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
50.0% (6)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
35.3% (17)
+15.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kolesar shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Tavares shoots left. Kolesar is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Tavares
Kolesar
Home
56.1% (10,503)
38.2% (191)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
44.9% (214)
By Period
Tavares
Kolesar
P1
55.0%
42.1%
P2
54.1%
43.2%
P3
54.1%
39.3%
Final 5 min
54.8%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Kolesar
40.0%▲
38.0%
41.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 18:26 | Defensive | Keegan Kolesar |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 3 | 16:55 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 3 | 13:43 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 3 | 13:37 | Offensive | Keegan Kolesar |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 3 | 01:48 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 3 | 01:34 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |