Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Carlsson 45.0% (+13.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 55.0%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 57.5%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 54.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Tavares
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Tavares
Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
1
Tavares
Carlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
45.5% (661)
+12.5%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
46.3% (82)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
33.3% (84)
+24.6%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Home / Away
Tavares
Carlsson
Home
57.8% (614)
42.5% (428)
Away
57.8% (554)
46.4% (399)
By Period
Tavares
Carlsson
P1
58.0%
45.4%
P2
56.9%
39.7%
P3
58.4%
48.5%
OT
57.7%
41.7%
Final 5 min
57.8%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 12:28 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |