Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +13.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Carlsson 41.2% (+13.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 95.1%
Defensive zone
Tavares 83.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 91.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 89.1%
89.1%
10.9%
Tavares
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Tavares
Carlsson
Last 7: Tavares 6-1 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Carlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Carlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
41.0% (1,844)
+13.0%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
42.9% (154)
+13.6%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
35.0% (120)
+15.6%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,479).
Home / Away
Tavares
Carlsson
Home
56.1% (10,503)
42.2% (1,044)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
39.4% (1,074)
By Period
Tavares
Carlsson
P1
55.0%
43.3%
P2
54.1%
36.5%
P3
54.1%
43.2%
OT
55.9%
40.7%
Final 5 min
54.8%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 12:28 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 18:54 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 13:01 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 02:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 10:33 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 00:59 | Neutral | John Tavares |