Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Backlund 49.7% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 93.4%
Defensive zone
Backlund 66.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 80.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 67.7%
67.7%
32.3%
Tavares
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Tavares
Backlund
Last 7: Tavares 5-2 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
Backlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
2
Tavares
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
50.1% (891)
+7.9%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
53.1% (64)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
47.8% (278)
+10.1%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Home / Away
Tavares
Backlund
Home
57.8% (614)
48.1% (580)
Away
57.8% (554)
51.1% (653)
By Period
Tavares
Backlund
P1
58.0%
45.1%
P2
56.9%
54.7%
P3
58.4%
49.0%
OT
57.7%
46.2%
Final 5 min
57.8%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 18:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 17:16 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 12:45 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:33 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 19:07 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 16:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |