Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Backlund 50.3% (+9.0%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 87.4%
Defensive zone
Backlund 70.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 60.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 61.2%
61.2%
38.8%
Tavares
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Tavares
Backlund
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
1
Tavares
Backlund
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
3
Tavares
Backlund
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
51.0% (1,205)
+8.2%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
59.3% (108)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
42.3% (234)
+0.6%
On even strength, Tavares has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Tavares shoots left. Backlund is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,012).
Home / Away
Tavares
Backlund
Home
57.5% (668)
51.2% (782)
Away
61.1% (684)
49.4% (765)
By Period
Tavares
Backlund
P1
58.0%
51.5%
P2
60.1%
49.8%
P3
61.0%
49.9%
OT
27.8%
37.5%
Final 5 min
60.7%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2024 | 3 | 16:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 3 | 10:05 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 17:23 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 14:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 12:07 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 08:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 07:20 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 16:35 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 13:01 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 09:56 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |