Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Backlund 50.8% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 69.1%
Defensive zone
Backlund 74.2%
Neutral zone
Backlund 56.6%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
Tavares
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Tavares
Backlund
Last 6: Tavares 3-3 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Backlund
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
3
Tavares
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
51.9% (1,083)
+5.6%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
51.7% (120)
+8.8%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
44.3% (183)
+14.8%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Tavares shoots left. Backlund is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (824).
Home / Away
Tavares
Backlund
Home
61.0% (661)
51.9% (673)
Away
55.3% (584)
49.9% (713)
By Period
Tavares
Backlund
P1
58.6%
51.4%
P2
57.8%
50.5%
P3
58.4%
51.4%
OT
66.7%
35.0%
Final 5 min
63.4%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 07:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 2 | 18:13 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 01:20 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 3 | 06:10 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 1 | 04:11 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |