Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 62.7% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Backlund 50.5% (+10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 87.5%
Defensive zone
Backlund 51.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 77.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 77.7%
77.7%
22.3%
Tavares
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Tavares
Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Backlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Tavares
Backlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
51.5% (983)
+9.4%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
49.4% (87)
+11.0%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
45.3% (159)
+2.3%
On power play, Tavares has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Tavares is 62.7% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Tavares shoots left. Backlund is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (742).
Home / Away
Tavares
Backlund
Home
63.5% (684)
51.6% (653)
Away
57.6% (658)
49.3% (576)
By Period
Tavares
Backlund
P1
60.3%
50.0%
P2
60.4%
49.8%
P3
60.1%
51.7%
OT
92.3%
53.3%
Final 5 min
57.4%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2022 | 2 | 06:14 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 2 | 06:08 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 2 | 17:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 1 | 07:08 | Offensive | John Tavares |