Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Tavares wins 56.9% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.7% vs Backlund 51.7% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 15-12 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 70.0%
Defensive zone
Backlund 55.1%
Neutral zone
Backlund 50.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Tavares
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
12
(27 meetings)
15
12
Tavares
Backlund
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
7
2
Tavares
Backlund
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
5
6
Tavares
Backlund
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
4
Tavares
Backlund
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (692)
53.2% (602)
+1.3%
Power Play
59.1% (149)
56.1% (66)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
39.0% (77)
+15.5%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Tavares is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Tavares shoots left. Backlund is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (521).
Home / Away
Tavares
Backlund
Home
57.9% (404)
51.5% (400)
Away
52.9% (448)
52.5% (345)
By Period
Tavares
Backlund
P1
54.2%
50.0%
P2
55.1%
56.4%
P3
56.4%
48.9%
OT
57.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.1%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
55.3%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2021 | 3 | 08:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 13, 2021 | 2 | 09:18 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 13, 2021 | 2 | 09:11 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 13, 2021 | 2 | 00:34 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 5, 2021 | 3 | 08:20 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 5, 2021 | 1 | 05:23 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 4, 2021 | 3 | 17:27 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 2 | 09:08 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 04:35 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 3 | 18:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 3 | 16:06 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 2 | 01:38 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 1 | 19:35 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 1 | 16:58 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 24, 2021 | 3 | 15:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 24, 2021 | 1 | 13:38 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 3 | 14:18 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 3 | 03:26 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 3 | 00:36 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 2 | 14:35 | Offensive | John Tavares |