Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +17.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Marner 43.1% (+17.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 69.2%
Defensive zone
Tavares 59.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 73.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 71.6%
71.6%
28.4%
Tavares
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Tavares
Marner
Last 5: Tavares 3-2 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Marner
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
1
2
Tavares
Marner
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
41.5% (282)
+16.5%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
40.0% (5)
+17.0%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
25.0% (12)
+32.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +32.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Tavares is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Tavares shoots left. Marner is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
Tavares
Marner
Home
57.8% (614)
36.1% (158)
Away
57.8% (554)
46.1% (141)
By Period
Tavares
Marner
P1
58.0%
41.6%
P2
56.9%
40.2%
P3
58.4%
40.5%
Final 5 min
57.8%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 05:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 05:51 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 13:28 | Neutral | John Tavares |