Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Dowd 49.1% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 95.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 69.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 84.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 83.4%
83.4%
16.6%
Tavares
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Tavares
Dowd
Last 8: Tavares 6-2 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Tavares
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
51.7% (644)
+6.3%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
0.0% (2)
+57.0%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
41.6% (221)
+16.3%
On power play, Tavares has a +57.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Tavares is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Tavares shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Tavares
Dowd
Home
57.8% (614)
48.6% (451)
Away
57.8% (554)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Tavares
Dowd
P1
58.0%
49.1%
P2
56.9%
47.3%
P3
58.4%
51.4%
OT
57.7%
30.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 08:57 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 04:42 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:26 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 17:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 15:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |