Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 57.1% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Dowd 53.3% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 94.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 71.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 67.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 70.8%
70.8%
29.2%
Tavares
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Tavares
Dowd
Last 9: Tavares 6-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Tavares
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
55.4% (771)
+5.5%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
57.1% (7)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
45.5% (165)
+2.1%
On even strength, Tavares has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Tavares is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Tavares shoots left. Dowd is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Tavares
Dowd
Home
63.5% (684)
58.2% (462)
Away
57.6% (658)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Tavares
Dowd
P1
60.3%
55.6%
P2
60.4%
50.5%
P3
60.1%
53.9%
OT
92.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
57.4%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 19:07 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 10:37 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 17:59 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 15:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 28, 2022 | 3 | 03:11 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 28, 2022 | 3 | 03:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 28, 2022 | 3 | 00:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 28, 2022 | 2 | 13:36 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 28, 2022 | 1 | 02:59 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |