Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Dowd 48.3% (+11.2%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 86.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 94.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 60.2%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Tavares
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Tavares
Dowd
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
4
Tavares
Dowd
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Tavares
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
49.2% (778)
+10.0%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
58.3% (12)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
44.0% (234)
-1.1%
On even strength, Tavares has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Tavares is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Tavares shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Home / Away
Tavares
Dowd
Home
57.5% (668)
46.3% (492)
Away
61.1% (684)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Tavares
Dowd
P1
58.0%
49.1%
P2
60.1%
48.2%
P3
61.0%
46.9%
OT
27.8%
71.4%
Final 5 min
60.7%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 03:59 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 01:06 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 18:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 18:28 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 11:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 3 | 09:34 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 3 | 01:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 3 | 01:10 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 2 | 16:19 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 2 | 03:14 | Offensive | John Tavares |