Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.2% vs Dowd 51.6% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 65.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 75.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 53.3%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 62.9%
37.1%
62.9%
Tavares
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Tavares
Dowd
Last 5: Tavares 2-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Tavares
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (1,201)
51.2% (381)
+1.8%
Power Play
61.5% (262)
100.0% (2)
-38.5%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (65)
53.9% (89)
-0.1%
On power play, Dowd has a +38.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Tavares is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (558).
Tavares shoots left. Dowd is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (330).
Home / Away
Tavares
Dowd
Home
57.5% (762)
54.6% (218)
Away
51.4% (766)
49.6% (254)
By Period
Tavares
Dowd
P1
54.5%
50.6%
P2
53.2%
55.1%
P3
55.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.5%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2019 | 3 | 10:36 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 2 | 10:24 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 2 | 10:16 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 1 | 02:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 08:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |