Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Roy 47.9% (+10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 58.5%
Defensive zone
Roy 75.9%
Neutral zone
Roy 72.4%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 68.9%
31.1%
68.9%
Tavares
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Tavares
Roy
Last 9: Tavares 3-6 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Roy
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
3
Tavares
Roy
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
0
3
Tavares
Roy
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
48.6% (679)
+9.1%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
48.0% (50)
+12.5%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
34.7% (49)
+21.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +21.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Tavares is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (490).
Tavares shoots left. Roy is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Tavares
Roy
Home
59.7% (610)
49.3% (345)
Away
57.0% (698)
46.4% (433)
By Period
Tavares
Roy
P1
57.2%
47.6%
P2
58.5%
47.1%
P3
59.4%
47.9%
OT
46.7%
75.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2025 | 3 | 16:36 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 3 | 14:03 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 2 | 19:37 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 2 | 19:33 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 2 | 09:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 2 | 06:19 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 1 | 11:25 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 1 | 11:18 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 01:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |