Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Roy 47.2% (+12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 90.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 55.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 78.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 77.0%
77.0%
23.0%
Tavares
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Tavares
Roy
Last 6: Tavares 4-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Tavares
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Roy
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
47.5% (617)
+11.7%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
39.6% (53)
+20.4%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
46.4% (97)
-3.5%
On power play, Tavares has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Tavares is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Tavares shoots left. Roy is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Home / Away
Tavares
Roy
Home
57.5% (668)
47.2% (398)
Away
61.1% (684)
46.3% (369)
By Period
Tavares
Roy
P1
58.0%
48.6%
P2
60.1%
48.8%
P3
61.0%
43.9%
OT
27.8%
0.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 09:11 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 17:50 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 01:28 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 14:20 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 14:11 | Offensive | John Tavares |