Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Colton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Colton 51.4% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 89.7%
Defensive zone
Tavares 54.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 71.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 71.7%
71.7%
28.3%
Tavares
Colton
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Tavares
Colton
Last 9: Tavares 6-3 Colton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Colton
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Colton
0
3
Tavares
Colton
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Colton
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Colton
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
52.1% (741)
+7.1%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
48.3% (60)
+11.7%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
42.1% (19)
+0.8%
On power play, Tavares has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Colton shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Tavares shoots left. Colton is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (551).
Home / Away
Tavares
Colton
Home
57.5% (668)
54.0% (411)
Away
61.1% (684)
49.1% (409)
By Period
Tavares
Colton
P1
58.0%
56.7%
P2
60.1%
53.1%
P3
61.0%
46.3%
OT
27.8%
0.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Colton
44.0%▲
42.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 09:57 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 09:42 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 04:41 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 01:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 19:08 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 12:33 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 12:23 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 15:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 11:52 | Neutral | John Tavares |