Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Johansen 52.8% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 83.3%
Defensive zone
Johansen 52.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 72.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 72.8%
72.8%
27.2%
Tavares
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Tavares
Johansen
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
2
Tavares
Johansen
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Johansen
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
Johansen
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
51.9% (597)
+7.3%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
57.9% (133)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
54.3% (81)
-11.4%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Tavares is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Tavares shoots left. Johansen is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (584).
Home / Away
Tavares
Johansen
Home
57.5% (668)
55.8% (387)
Away
61.1% (684)
50.7% (424)
By Period
Tavares
Johansen
P1
58.0%
50.0%
P2
60.1%
56.2%
P3
61.0%
52.6%
OT
27.8%
75.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 17:09 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 14:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 08:57 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 05:08 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 19:23 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 08:44 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 02:16 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 08:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 04:43 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 02:06 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 17:08 | Defensive | John Tavares |