Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 15 meetings). Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs McLeod 47.8% (+10.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 18-12 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 91.3%
Defensive zone
McLeod 52.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 84.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 76.6%
76.6%
23.4%
Tavares
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
12
(30 meetings)
18
12
Tavares
McLeod
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
11
4
Tavares
McLeod
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
4
Tavares
McLeod
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
4
Tavares
McLeod
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
49.2% (796)
+8.8%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
44.8% (87)
+12.2%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
43.3% (263)
+14.6%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. McLeod is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (748).
Home / Away
Tavares
McLeod
Home
57.8% (614)
49.2% (575)
Away
57.8% (554)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Tavares
McLeod
P1
58.0%
52.8%
P2
56.9%
45.1%
P3
58.4%
45.6%
OT
57.7%
35.7%
Final 5 min
57.8%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 17:40 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 07:01 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 06:42 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 06:09 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 12:42 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 04:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 18:24 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 18:17 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 07:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 16:38 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 09:08 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 03:35 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 17:06 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:31 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 07:06 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 05:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 04:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 14:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 02:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |