Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 18 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs McLeod 49.6% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 27-18 in 45 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 89.2%
Defensive zone
Tavares 52.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 79.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 73.1%
73.1%
26.9%
Tavares
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
18
(45 meetings)
27
18
Tavares
McLeod
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
12
6
Tavares
McLeod
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
9
8
Tavares
McLeod
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
6
4
Tavares
McLeod
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
50.4% (3,345)
+3.6%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
51.0% (292)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
44.3% (635)
+6.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. McLeod is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Home / Away
Tavares
McLeod
Home
56.1% (10,503)
50.2% (2,158)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
48.9% (2,114)
By Period
Tavares
McLeod
P1
55.0%
50.8%
P2
54.1%
48.4%
P3
54.1%
50.0%
OT
55.9%
37.1%
Final 5 min
54.8%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 17:40 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 07:01 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 06:42 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 06:09 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 12:42 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 04:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 18:24 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 18:17 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 07:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 16:38 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 09:08 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 03:35 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 17:06 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:31 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 07:06 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 05:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 04:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 14:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 02:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |